Massive Global Growth of Renewables Predicted by 2030 according to IEA

IEA predicts over 5,500 GW of new renewable capacity by 2030, matching the power capacity of major economies and advancing global climate goals.

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A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a significant surge in renewable power capacity over the rest of this decade. Supported by favorable policies and economic factors, global additions are expected to roughly equal the current power capacity of China, the European Union, India, and the United States combined.

According to the “Renewables 2024” report, the world is set to add more than 5,500 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable energy capacity between 2024 and 2030—nearly three times the increase between 2017 and 2023.

China is projected to account for almost 60% of all renewable capacity installed worldwide during this period, based on current market trends and existing policy settings. By the end of the decade, China is expected to be home to nearly half of the world’s total renewable power capacity, up from a third in 2010. While China leads in volume, India is experiencing the fastest growth rate among major economies.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology alone is anticipated to contribute to 80% of the global renewable capacity growth by 2030. This expansion results from the construction of new large-scale solar power plants and increased rooftop solar installations by businesses and households. Despite ongoing challenges, the wind sector is also poised for a resurgence, with its expansion rate expected to double between 2024 and 2030 compared to the previous period. Wind and solar PV have become the most cost-effective options for adding new electricity generation in almost every country.

These trends indicate that nearly 70 countries, collectively accounting for 80% of global renewable power capacity, are on track to reach or surpass their current renewable ambitions for 2030. While the growth brings the world closer to the goal set by nearly 200 governments at the COP28 climate change conference in December 2023—to triple the world’s renewable capacity this decade—the report forecasts that global capacity will reach 2.7 times its 2022 level by 2030. The IEA’s analysis suggests that achieving the tripling target is possible if governments take immediate action. This includes outlining ambitious plans for the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and enhancing international cooperation to reduce high financing costs in emerging and developing economies.

“Renewables are moving faster than national governments can set targets for,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “This is mainly driven not just by efforts to lower emissions or boost energy security – it’s increasingly because renewables today offer the cheapest option to add new power plants in almost all countries around the world.” 

“This report shows that the growth of renewables, especially solar, will transform electricity systems across the globe this decade. Between now and 2030, the world is on course to add more than 5.500 GW of renewable power capacity – roughly equal to the current power capacity of China, the European Union, India, and the United States combined. By 2030, we expect renewables to be meeting half of global electricity demand.”

By the end of the decade, wind and solar PV are projected to double their share in global electricity generation to 30%. However, the report emphasizes the need for governments to increase efforts to securely integrate these variable renewable sources into power systems. 

Rates of curtailment—where renewable electricity generation isn’t utilized—have been rising, reaching around 10% in several countries. To address this, countries should focus on enhancing power system flexibility. Addressing policy uncertainties, streamlining permitting processes, investing in the construction and modernization of 25 million kilometers of electricity grids, and achieving 1,500 GW of storage capacity by 2030, as highlighted in previous IEA analysis — would enable ever larger shares of generation from renewables. 

Overall, led by the significant growth of renewable electricity, the share of renewables in final energy consumption is forecast to increase to nearly 20% by 2030, up from 13% in 2023. However, renewable fuels—the subject of a special chapter in the report—are lagging, underscoring the need for dedicated policy support to decarbonize challenging sectors and electrify them. 

The report notes that meeting international climate goals requires not only accelerating the rollout of renewable power but also significantly speeding up the adoption of these renewable fuels. Since they remain more expensive than their fossil counterparts, their share in global energy is expected to remain below 6% in 2030.

The report also examines the state of manufacturing for renewable technologies. Global solar manufacturing capacity is expected to surpass 1,100 GW by the end of 2024, more than double the projected demand. While this surplus, concentrated in China, has contributed to a decline in module prices—more than halving since early 2023—it has also led to significant financial losses for many manufacturers. 

With a growing international focus on industrial competitiveness, solar PV manufacturing capacity is forecast to triple in India and the United States by 2030, aiding global diversification. However, producing solar panels in the United States costs three times as much as in China and twice as much in India. According to the report, policymakers are encouraged to balance the additional costs and benefits of local manufacturing, considering key priorities such as job creation and energy security.

Source: IEA

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