As Nio Inc. continues to see an increase in vehicle sales, the company’s battery swap service network is expected to expand significantly, analysts report. A team from Western Securities, a Chinese brokerage firm, projects that Nio’s battery swapping business will reach break-even by the end of 2026, anticipating an overall improvement in the electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer’s financial performance in 2025.
Currently, the main challenge for Nio’s battery swap services is the low number of daily operations per station, which has led to revenues that are insufficient to cover operational and depreciation costs. However, with the expected rise in vehicle sales and the advancement of Nio’s new battery rental model, the number of daily services per station is projected to grow substantially. Western Securities’ analyst Qi Tianxiang’s team noted that averaging 61 battery swap services per station each day by the end of 2026 would enable the business to achieve profitability. This estimate aligns with CFO Stanley Qu’s statement last November, which indicated that a break-even point requires between 60 to 70 services per day per station.
Nio currently operates 3,131 battery swap stations across China, with Shanghai having the highest concentration at 183 stations. In a recent live broadcast, Nio’s CEO William Li highlighted the nearing profitability of the Shanghai stations, mentioning that the region offered over 9,000 battery swaps per day and was approaching 10,000 swaps daily.
Western Securities also expects a significant improvement in Nio’s overall bottom line in 2025, driven by robust vehicle sales growth. The brokerage firm forecasts Nio to deliver approximately 430,000 vehicles in 2025 and 563,000 in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 94% and 31%, respectively. This anticipated growth is supported by steady increases in sales of Nio’s main brand and rapid expansion of the Onvo sub-brand through the introduction of new models.
Additionally, Nio’s gross margins are expected to rise significantly as production volumes increase and new platforms are utilized. Nio management has expressed confidence in doubling sales in 2025 and targeting profitability in 2026, aiming to deliver around 440,000 vehicles in 2025.
Following these positive projections, Nio’s shares experienced a notable increase in the US market, rising 10.54% to $4.72, and similarly in Hong Kong, where shares climbed over 10% to HK$38.35, resulting in a year-to-date gain of approximately 12%.
Source: CnEVPost
