Electric vehicle (EV) sales are on track to set a new record this year, even as growth rates begin to moderate. According to BloombergNEF (BNEF), global sales of EVs—including both battery-electric and plug-in hybrid models—are expected to hit 16.7 million units in 2024, up from 13.9 million in 2023. This projection aligns with forecasts made earlier in the year.
In the first half of the year, worldwide EV sales increased by 26%, with preliminary data indicating a 30% rise in September. While these figures represent robust growth, they are a slowdown compared to the 33% increase seen last year and the 60% surge the year before.
Some markets, such as Japan and Germany, have experienced not just a deceleration but an actual decline in EV sales. Germany saw a significant 61% drop in August compared to the previous year, largely due to a spike in sales ahead of subsidy reductions in August 2023, which has distorted year-over-year comparisons.
Assessing EV demand in Europe is currently complex. Many automakers are postponing the launch of more affordable EV models until 2025, when stricter CO₂ emission targets across the European Union will come into effect. Since many manufacturers already meet this year’s targets, there is little incentive to boost EV sales immediately. A similar pattern occurred in 2019 ahead of the 2020 emissions standard tightening, suggesting history may repeat itself.
Automakers are preparing to unveil cost-effective models like the Renault 5, Hyundai Inster, Fiat Grande Panda, Skoda Epiq, and Volkswagen ID.2all. However, pricing remains a significant challenge. Some companies are attempting to recoup development costs over relatively low sales volumes, leading to higher consumer prices. For instance, the Fiat 500e is priced nearly €12,000 ($13,000) more than its gasoline counterpart, despite having only about €3,000 worth of batteries, making it over 60% more expensive—a tough sell for mass-market customers.
China continues to drive the global EV market, accounting for six out of every ten plug-in vehicles sold worldwide this year. The domestic EV market share has surpassed 50%, with sales jumping nearly 50% in September. However, much of this growth is fueled by plug-in hybrids and range-extended EVs rather than solely battery-electric vehicles. Retail sales of battery-electric vehicles in China have risen 18% this year, while total plug-in sales are up 37%.
In the United States, EV adoption lags behind Europe and China but has reached a record in the third quarter with around 390,000 units sold. Tesla’s U.S. market share has dipped below 50%, but other manufacturers like General Motors, Hyundai, and Honda—with its new Prologue model—are making significant gains. BNEF anticipates a strong finish to the year, projecting that EVs will exceed 10% of total vehicle sales in the U.S.
Overall, while growth rates are slowing, the global EV market is still expanding. EVs are expected to account for 20% of all vehicle sales worldwide this year, emphasizing the importance of looking beyond headlines to understand the market’s nuanced evolution.
Source: BloombergNEF
