BloombergNEF’s latest Electric Vehicle Outlook forecasts nearly 22 million battery electric and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicle sales worldwide in 2025, a 25% increase from 2024. This growth reflects continued declines in lithium-ion battery costs and the introduction of more affordable EV models. Plug-in electrified vehicles are expected to represent one in four new car sales globally, up from less than 5% just a few years ago.
China is projected to account for almost two-thirds of total EV sales, followed by Europe at 17% and the US at 7%. BloombergNEF notes that China is the only major market where EVs are, on average, cheaper than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles, and that 69% of global EV manufacturing originates there. Sales from Chinese automakers in emerging markets such as Thailand and Brazil have also surged, at times outpacing US adoption rates. Outside of China, the UK leads large European markets in EV penetration.
For the first time, BloombergNEF has adjusted its short- and long-term global EV adoption outlook downward, primarily due to recent shifts in US policy, including revised federal fuel-economy standards, the phase-out of federal EV tax credits, and potential changes to state-level air quality regulations. Although US passenger EV sales are still projected to rise from 1.6 million in 2025 to 4.1 million in 2030, the updated forecast represents roughly 14 million fewer cumulative EV sales over that period compared to previous projections.
Colin McKerracher, head of clean transport and energy storage at BloombergNEF, and lead author of the report said, “2024 was a landmark year for electrified transport, with electric vehicles hitting global sales highs and rapidly increasing adoption from emerging markets across Asia and LatAm. Despite these positive tailwinds, we see slower EV adoption in the short and long-term due in large part to the changing landscape in the US. This shift in global adoption will also have major impacts on the battery industry, leading to overcapacity in manufacturing.”
In its Economic Transition Scenario—absent new policy interventions—EVs are expected to reach 56% of global passenger vehicle sales by 2035 and 70% by 2040, though they will comprise only 40% of the total passenger vehicle fleet in 2040, falling short of levels aligned with net-zero emissions pathways.
The report also highlights emerging trends, including 83% year-over-year growth in range-extended EVs, rapid expansion of electric commercial trucks in China (forecast to hit 46% of sales by 2030), and over 80% electrification of three-wheelers in 2024. Battery demand forecasts for 2025–2035 have been reduced by 8%—equivalent to 3.4 terawatt-hours—driven largely by lower US EV sales. Persistently high public charging costs in some regions could further influence EV uptake, even as home charging remains significantly cheaper than gasoline on a per-kilometer basis.
Source: BloombergNEF
