A joint study by two Fraunhofer institutes has highlighted a significant rise in raw material demand driven by emerging technologies through 2045. Conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) and the Fraunhofer Institute for Reliability and Microintegration (IZM) on behalf of Germany’s Deutsche Rohstoffagentur, the analysis covers 34 key technologies and 14 critical materials. It serves as an early warning on potential supply bottlenecks and offers policy and industry recommendations to support a sustainable transformation.
The research finds that twelve metals could see demand reach or exceed current global production levels by 2045. Iridium tops the list, owing to its role in water electrolysis systems that produce green hydrogen for the chemical and steel industries. Lithium follows closely, with projected needs for battery applications—especially in electric vehicles—potentially increasing fivefold. Scandium demand is also expected to surge, driven by stationary fuel cells, while graphite requirements for high-performance lithium-ion batteries could significantly outpace 2023 supply in one scenario.
Heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium are forecast to experience strong growth due to their use in electric vehicle traction motors, wind turbines, heat pumps and climate control systems. Platinum and ruthenium needs may rise sharply as data center expansion—fueled by artificial intelligence and digital services—accelerates, underlining that digital infrastructure has a substantial material footprint.
The study evaluates three future scenarios: a high-ambition sustainability transformation; rapid economic growth without environmental safeguards; and a fragmented global landscape marked by geopolitical tensions. By comparing projected 2045 material requirements with 2023 production data, researchers emphasize that strategic measures are essential. They recommend diversified and secure supply chains, improvements in production and product efficiency, expanded recycling and circular economy practices, and material substitution early in technology development.
According to the authors, these insights do not constitute a single forecast but outline possible trajectories. Early, coordinated action in industrial and resource policy can help prevent supply shortages and price spikes, ensuring that raw materials remain available for the clean, digital future.
