Senior executives at Fastmarkets’ Global Lithium, Battery & Critical Materials conference in Las Vegas on June 23 highlighted that efforts to diversify critical minerals supply chains are gaining momentum, but ex-China midstream processing remains a key constraint. While demand sources—including the energy storage system sector—are becoming more geographically varied, development of processing capacity for lithium salts and cathode active materials (CAM) outside China is lagging.
According to Fastmarkets research, China is set to account for about 84% of globally announced CAM capacity and roughly 71% of processed lithium production (on a lithium carbonate equivalent basis) in 2026. South Korea trails as the next largest CAM producer with 8.6% of capacity under development.
“We fully support the administration’s drive for diversified, competitive supply chains,” said Eric Norris, chief commercial officer at Albemarle. He noted that the United States has ample raw materials and an automotive-built battery infrastructure, but lacks the intermediate processing facilities needed to close the loop.
Dale Henderson, CEO of Pilbara Minerals, described geopolitical shifts as a tailwind rather than a headwind. “There’s significant opportunity to build out midstream and downstream processing,” he said. Earlier this month, Australian producer Pilbara opened its first mine-site midstream facility at Pilgangoora, producing lithium phosphate as an intermediate battery material.
Barbara Fochtman, managing director of Rio Tinto Lithium, emphasized that current demand levels distinguish this cycle from 2021–2023 and that resilient supply chains are essential.
Fastmarkets’ daily assessment for spot battery-grade lithium carbonate CIF China, Japan and Korea was $20.00–21.50 per kilogram on June 23, up from $13.00–16.00 at the start of the year. However, high costs for building out ex-China processing—estimated at two to three times China’s marginal cash costs—pose a barrier.
Norris pointed to policy gaps and stressed the need for price support to encourage processing investment in allied jurisdictions. Gracelin Baskaran of the Center for Strategic and International Studies added that while there is broad agreement on the need for price floors, stakeholders differ on funding mechanisms. She also called for long-term stability in incentives, noting upcoming phase-outs of key tax credits could disrupt project development.
Source: Fastmarkets
