An analysis of the European Union’s electric vehicle (EV) tariffs shows they have succeeded in reducing the share of imported battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) from China, but have not halted the overall rise in Chinese EV sales across the EU. Since the activation of these measures, imports of China-made BEVs have fallen from a peak of 22% of EU BEV sales in 2024 to 17% in the first quarter of 2026, stabilizing at roughly 350,000 units annually.
Differing tariff rates have produced varied outcomes among Chinese automakers. SAIC, subject to a 35% duty, saw its EU BEV imports nearly halve compared to its 2023 high, while BYD, facing a 17% tariff, more than doubled its shipments. Meanwhile, many Western manufacturers have shifted EV production to Europe. From 2024 to Q1 2026, imports of China-built BEVs from European OEMs declined from 38% to 23%, and Tesla’s share dropped from 26% to 19%.
Chinese brands are also investing in onshore BEV production. Since late 2023, ten factories have been announced in Europe, with output expected to reach 600,000 units by 2035, concentrated in Turkey, Hungary and Spain. Despite this local capacity, tariff-exempt battery and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) exports from China have surged: battery exports jumped from approximately $4 billion in 2020 to nearly $30 billion in 2025, and China-built PHEVs rose from 37% of EU PHEV imports in 2024 to 60% in 2026.
Chinese EVs maintain a price advantage of about 21% and now account for more than half of all Chinese-brand BEV imports. Projections suggest that by 2035, China-built BEVs could represent 60% of Chinese brand sales in Europe, rising from 350,000 units in 2025 to 850,000. Weaker EU car CO₂ targets could further boost Chinese BEV market share from 15% today to 30% by 2035.
Policymakers are advised to uphold ambitious CO₂ regulations, strengthen foreign investment rules for overseas production, and consider higher duties on Chinese battery imports—currently set at 1–3%—to support European battery manufacturers. Additional measures include broadening trade defenses across the battery value chain, preventing circumvention via third-country production, and accelerating market-building initiatives for locally made EVs through pending legislation.
Source: Transport & Environment
