BloombergNEF forecasts global EV sales to exceed 23 million this year, an 11% increase over 2025, representing 27% of new car sales worldwide—up from 9% five years ago. By 2035, more than half of all passenger vehicles sold are expected to be electric. China remains the dominant market, accounting for 63% of global EV sales in 2025 and roughly two-thirds of its domestic new car market. It is projected to maintain over half of global EV sales through the end of the decade.
Battery-Tech Network · BNEF EV Outlook 2026
Emerging Markets Now Outpace the US on EV Adoption
In 2025, EV penetration across several Asian and emerging markets climbed past US levels — propelled by drives for oil-import independence, openness to Chinese automakers, and EV-focused industrial policy.
Singapore
~50%
Nearly half of all new cars sold in 2025 were electric.
Vietnam
39%
Driven by domestic champion VinFast, which holds 98% of the local EV market.
Thailand
27%
Chinese brands made up 88% of all EVs sold in the market.
Turkey
22%
EV share more than doubled in a single year.
The contrast
Adoption in these markets now often exceeds the United States, where EV sales are set to fall 19% in 2026 after the withdrawal of federal regulatory support — leaving just 24% of the US fleet electric by 2040.
Source: BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026. Figures are EV share of new passenger-car sales, 2025. Singapore is approximate (“nearly half”).
Battery-Tech Network · BNEF EV Outlook 2026
Who Owns the Emerging EV Markets: China vs National Champions
BNEF’s breakdown of 2025 passenger-EV sales by automaker headquarters shows Chinese brands dominating most emerging markets — except where a homegrown champion has taken hold.
Chinese-HQ brands
Domestic champion
Other foreign
Turkey
238,000 EVs · Togg
Vietnam
179,000 EVs · VinFast
The takeaway
A national champion is the only proven brake on Chinese EV dominance abroad. Where one exists — VinFast in Vietnam, Togg in Turkey — Chinese-HQ brands are held to a minority. Where none does, they take 86–96% of the market.
Source: BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026, Figure 2 — share of 2025 passenger-EV sales by automaker headquarters. Totals are full-year 2025 unit sales.
Emerging markets in Southeast Asia and Latin America are also experiencing rapid uptake. Nearly half of passenger vehicles sold in Singapore in 2025 were electric, followed by Vietnam at 39% and Thailand at 27%. In Turkey, EV sales more than doubled in one year, reaching a 22% share of total car sales. Growth in these regions is supported by domestic production, automaker partnerships, and policies aimed at reducing oil imports.
Despite robust global growth, BloombergNEF has revised down its long-term EV adoption outlook for the second consecutive year. The adjustment reflects a slowdown in two major markets: China, where stricter incentive criteria and market maturation have dampened growth, and the United States, where federal support for electrification has been rolled back. U.S. EV sales are projected to fall 19% this year, resulting in just 24% of the national fleet being electric by 2040.
Battery-Tech Network · BNEF EV Outlook 2026
China Still Sets the Pace of the Global EV Market
Even as its domestic market matures and growth slows, China remains the center of gravity for global electrification through 2030 — in sales, in market share, and in battery cost.
Global EV sales, 2025
63%
China’s share of all electric cars sold worldwide.
Global EV sales, 2030
52%
China is projected to still hold over half of global sales.
China’s own market
64%
Share of new cars sold in China that are now electric.
EV battery prices
World’s lowest
A mature supply chain, low input costs and fierce competition keep China ahead.
Why growth is cooling
BNEF trimmed its long-term EV outlook partly because China’s market is maturing: tighter incentive eligibility and intense competition are slowing the world’s largest EV market — even as it stays the industry’s center of gravity.
Source: BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026.
Battery costs remain a significant factor in adoption, with electric vehicles still carrying a price premium over internal combustion models in key European markets. China’s mature supply chain and competitive financing have driven its battery prices lower than elsewhere, a gap that is challenging to close for North American and European manufacturers.
The expanding EV fleet is expected to reshape oil demand, with BloombergNEF projecting road fuel use to peak by 2029. Under a scenario combining electrification and efficiency gains, the global transition could displace 25.8 million barrels per day of oil by 2040. Meanwhile, investment opportunities continue to grow, with an estimated $2.2 trillion in vehicle spending and $524 billion in charging infrastructure investment projected by 2035.
Source: BloombergNEF
