At the Intelligent Electric Vehicle Development Forum held April 11–12 in Beijing, Professor Ouyang Minggao of Tsinghua University outlined a detailed roadmap for China’s transition to pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs). He asserted that plug-in hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles have entered a decline, forecasting that BEVs will account for 90 percent of the new-energy passenger vehicle market by 2040.
Efficiency Advantage of BEVs
Professor Ouyang highlighted that pure electric drive systems utilize green electricity with efficiency levels approximately twice those of hydrogen vehicles and four times those of combustion engines running on synthetic fuels. He said this inherent efficiency edge ensures the eventual obsolescence of plug-in hybrid architectures.
Market Share Projections
According to Ouyang’s projections, by 2030 new-energy passenger vehicles will exceed 70 percent of total sales, with a 7:3 ratio favoring pure electric over plug-in models. By 2035, that share is expected to stabilize above 80 percent with an 8:2 ratio, and by 2040 BEVs will dominate at a 9:1 ratio within a market share remaining north of 80 percent.
Caution on Solid-State Batteries
While acknowledging industry enthusiasm for solid-state technology, Ouyang urged cautious development. He noted ongoing challenges in interfacial side reactions that affect chemical, mechanical, thermal and air stability. He projected that solid-state cells reaching 300 Wh/kg could appear by 2030’s end but warned against premature commercialization as a marketing tactic. China leads in solid-state patent applications, accounting for 44 percent of new filings last year, and has built domestic sulfide-electrolyte capacity exceeding 20,000 tons, driving prices down from 20 million yuan to under 1 million yuan per ton.
Evolution of Battery Safety
Ouyang identified three key milestones: the 2014 suspension of ternary batteries in buses by China’s industry ministry, BYD’s 2020 introduction of lithium-iron phosphate blade cells for passenger cars, and forthcoming safety standards mandating non-combustion and non-explosion performance. He noted China currently lacks an authoritative battery safety ranking system comparable to some overseas markets.
Emerging Business Models and Commercial Vehicles
Looking ahead, Ouyang described five emerging automotive business models—vertical integration, dual-drive strategies, internet-centric new automakers, horizontal industry restructuring, and state-owned enterprise reform. For commercial trucks, he projected new-energy market shares exceeding 50 percent by 2030, 60 percent by 2035 and 70 percent by 2040. Total new-energy vehicle stock is expected to reach 100–150 million units by 2030 and 300–380 million by 2040, supported by green electricity consumption surpassing 50 percent by 2030 and 65–70 percent by 2035.
Source: Car News China
