BloombergNEF (BNEF) published its Transition Risk and Opportunity Outlook on January 1, 2026, modeling how the energy transition could affect corporate cash flows over the coming decade. The analysis covers more than 70,000 companies and examines electric utilities, coal, automotive and aviation, oil and gas, and metals and mining under BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario.
In the automotive sector, BNEF expects companies with high electric vehicle exposure, including BYD and battery manufacturer Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL), to increase revenue. However, the estimates depend on successful international expansion if EV sales continue slowing in China. Revenues for European automakers such as Renault and Volkswagen decline or plateau in the modeling because of limited material revenue exposure to electrification.
BNEF projects that net corporate costs from regulated carbon markets will increase from $74 billion in 2025 to $157 billion in 2035. Utilities, refiners, steelmakers and airlines account for most of the increase. The same companies have a modeled net revenue opportunity of $559 billion by 2035.
BNEF Sees $157 Billion in Corporate Carbon Costs by 2035
Across five major sectors, carbon costs jump while coal exposure sends some utility revenues down by nearly half.
Electrification and more fuel-efficient combustion cars displace 15.6 million barrels per day in 2035, versus 3.2 million daily barrels in 2025.
Oil and gas companies face both higher carbon prices and weaker road-fuel demand. Electrification and more efficient combustion vehicles are projected to displace 15.6 million barrels per day of oil demand in 2035, compared with 3.2 million barrels per day in 2025. The materials sector’s share of modeled corporate carbon costs rises from 10.7% today to more than one-quarter in 2035.
Most modeled electric utilities generate growth from renewables, batteries and grids as electricity demand rises. However, utilities with coal-fired generation face pressure from declining plant operating hours. BNEF models revenues for Origin Energy and Huaneng Power International falling by nearly half.
Metals and mining companies also benefit from demand for copper used in EVs, chargers, grids, batteries, energy storage systems and renewable power infrastructure. Demand for cobalt and nickel increases as well, although BNEF said companies will need sufficient production capacity to capture these opportunities.
Source: about.bnef.com
