The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) published a report on September 24, 2026, modeling where and when charging demand for battery-electric trucks could emerge in Europe through 2045. The analysis covers the 27 European Union member states, the United Kingdom, Norway, and Switzerland.
Using the newly developed VESUVIO model, the researchers assessed depot and public en-route charging on a grid with a spatial resolution of approximately 17 by 20 kilometers. Demand was modeled at 15-minute intervals over a one-week period.
In a scenario with favorable policy conditions for battery-electric truck adoption, annual charging demand across Europe reaches around 100 TWh by 2035 and approximately 200 TWh by 2045. The highest demand is expected in major freight markets including Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Italy.
Europas E-Lkw-Ladebedarf steigt bis 2045 auf etwa 200 Terawattstunden
Der Ladebedarf wächst stark und konzentriert sich auf wenige Standorte – entscheidend für den gezielten Ausbau von Lade- und Netzinfrastruktur.
Das Modell deckt die 27 EU-Mitgliedstaaten plus Großbritannien, Norwegen und Schweiz auf rund 17 mal 20 Kilometern über den Zeitraum von einer Woche ab.
Depot charging dominates across all countries and scenarios, accounting for more than 70% to 80% of total charging demand in most cases. Public en-route charging remains important for long-haul transport and could represent 30% to 50% of demand in some smaller transit countries.
The study also finds that demand will be concentrated at relatively few locations. In many countries, 1% of sites account for roughly one-quarter to one-third of total charging electricity demand. The top 10% of sites represent between 60% and 90% of national demand, particularly along major freight corridors, at highway intersections, and around urban and industrial centers.
Local peak loads in the highest-demand areas frequently reach 20 MW to 50 MW in larger countries with substantial freight activity. The authors recommend prioritizing these locations in grid planning, supporting depot charging as the backbone of electric truck infrastructure, and ensuring targeted public charging coverage in transit regions.
Source: Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI
